GBP/EUR: Brexit & Italian Budget Concerns To Drive Trading

The Euro is continuing its downward trajectory versus the US Dollar on Friday, as activity in the Italian service sector halts and ahead of the US jobs report later today.

At 08:30 UTC, EUR/USD is trading -0.5% lower sat US$1.0803, at the lower end of its daily trading range of US$1.0792 – US$1.0864.

Eurozone Service Sector PMI Up Next

Worrying coronavirus numbers across the eurozone region are weighing on demand for the euro currency. Around half of the deaths worldwide from coronavirus are concentrated in Italy, Spain and France. Whilst Italy is seeing the number of daily deaths ease, Spain is seeing fresh record daily mortalities and France is still moving up the curve.

The impact on the eurozone economy is being revealed. Spain reported its biggest rise in jobless claims ever. 800,000 people lost their jobs in Spain last month alone.

France also revealed that 4 million people had applied for temporary unemployed benefits, which accounts for around 20% of Frances private sector workforce.

Today attention is on the impact of coronavirus on the regions’ service sector. Data showed that activity in the service sector literally halted in Italy amid the coronavirus lock down. The Italian service sector purchasing managers index plunged to just 17.4. The lowest level ever recorded. This was well short of the 22.5 forecast and significantly down from February’s reading of 52.1. The figure 50 separates expansion from contraction.

The Eurozone reading is due next and is expected to show a downward revision to 28.2, from 28.8. A weaker reading could send the Euro tanking.

100,000 Job Losses

The US economy is also showing signs of being in a worrying place. The number of people signing up for unemployment benefits soared by 10 million in just 2 weeks. With US states only starting to lock down as from late March, the worst is yet to come.

Today investors will look towards US non-farm payroll report. Analysts are expecting 100,000 jobs to have been lost in March. The number is much lower than the unemployment claimant count because it only measure to 12th March. April’s reading will give a truer picture of the coronavirus impact.


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