USD/INR: Rupee Falls on Bets RBI Will Match Fed Rate Cut

The US dollar is higher against the Indian rupee on Wednesday, aiming for a 5-day winning stretch as the Indian rupee drops deeper into one-year lows. Even a shock 50 basis point rate cut from the Fed was not enough to see the rupee strengthen against the greenback yesterday.

USD/INR was up by 27 pips (+0.37%) to 73.15 with a daily range of 71.655 to 72.272 as of 10am GMT. USD/INR had come off its 14-month highs yesterday afternoon but is above it gain as of Wednesday morning.

USD to INR exchange rate is higher by 0.94% over the week.

INR affected by disappointing economic data from China and Hong Kong

A continuing rise in the number of coronavirus cases in South Korea as well some very disappointing economic data from China and Hong Kong weighed on Asian currencies including the Indian rupee on Wednesday. China’s February Caixin services PMI cratered to 26.5, by far its lowest on record while the Hong Kong February PMI also hit a record low of 33.1.
Malaysia’s central bank, the Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points, its second reduction this year on Monday. The general feeling is that other central banks will be doing the same shortly to combat the economic risks posed by the coronavirus. Now, following the emergency rate cut from the Fed, many Asian central banks will want to at least match the change.

Separately, Prime Minister Narendra Modi today chaired a Cabinet meeting where proposals for the Companies Act and the merger of 10 PSU banks were discussed.

The dollar – FOMC took investors by surprise with an emergency rate cut on Tuesday

The dollar fell as might be expected when yields on US money is falling. The odd choreography of the decision coming two hours after a G7 communique that had seemingly decided nothing seemed to unnerve stock investors and the Dow finished the day down nearly 900 points.

If the point of the exercise was to reassure markets, it seemed to fail almost immediately. Markets had been envisaging the Fed would lower interest rates after Jerome Powell’s rare press release last week but not many were expecting it so quickly.

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