The US dollar is higher against the Indian rupee on Tuesday, continuing its ascent to a new one-year peak. Markets are looking through the prospect of lower US interest rates in expectations that emerging market counties including India will have to cut rates too, and probably by more.
USD/INR was up by 27 pips (+0.37%) to 73.15 with a daily range of 71.655 to 72.272 as of 10am GMT. USD/INR recovered from a late drop yesterday, finding support at 72.5 and rallied to a 14-month high above 73.0 by Tuesday.
The Indian rupee
A rise in the number of / cases in South Korea, which reported 374 new cases to total 5186 was a source of alarm, causing a fall in most Asian currencies except the Japanese yen.
Sentiment improved on Monday but the catalysts for the rally don’t mean riskier currencies will necessarily benefit. A rally in the US stock market on Monday saw the S&P500 gains 4.6% and the Dow register its biggest daily jump since 2009. There are rising calls for a cut to US interest rates, but other countries including India could act first and eventually do more. Overnight the Reserve Bank of Australia cut benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points. It will presumably kick off a round of rates cuts across the Asia-Pacific region.
The dollar
US President Donald Trump has been on Twitter commenting on the level of US interest rates after Australia cut interest rates. At the same time US Vice President Mike Pence has said the risk from the coronavirus to the United States “remains low”.
The President said “Our Federal Reserve has us paying higher rates than many others, when we should be paying less. Tough on our exporters and puts the USA at a competitive disadvantage. Must be the other way around. Should ease and cut rate big. Jerome Powell led Federal Reserve has called it wrong from day one. Sad!”
Trump might have a point on competitiveness, but the dollar still gained in 2019 due to the strength of the US economy despite lowered US interest rates.
