The Australian dollar was up against the US dollar on Tuesday afternoon after markets interpreted Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as having left the door open to further US rate cuts this year in his testimony to lawmakers in Washington DC.
AUD/USD was higher by 48 pips (+0.73%) to 0.6734 with a daily price range of 0.6683 to 0.6735 as of 3pm GMT. The currency pair is hanging around the key 0.67 level and above a decade low at 0.666. The daily gains contribute towards a +0.94% return so far this week.
At the time of writing, Jerome Powell is giving his pre-released comments to Congress about the current state of monetary policy in the USA. The big picture conclusion is that the current policy of the Federal Reserve is appropriate “barring a material reassessment.” This is Powell reiterating the Fed’s intention to keep interest rates steady, ideally until after the 2020 election.
What was more interesting from the perspective of the US dollar is what could possibly throw those plans for unchanged interest rates off-course. It seems that one of those things that could cause the Fed to adjust its plans and lower interest rates again is the coronavirus. Powell said the Fed “is closely monitoring the coronavirus which could lead to disruptions in China and spill over to the global economy.”
AUD benefits from growth in housing finance
Markets are seemingly looking past the ongoing spread and rising death toll of the coronavirus in expectation that it will eventually be contained. Imperial College London have calculated a mortality rate of 1% and a virologist told Sky News that the chances of a pandemic are “on a knife edge”. Tesla and Ford have returned to production in China but others including General Motors plan to open in the next few days.
There were some domestic factors pushing up the Australian dollar. Data on the housing market showing the strongest monthly growth in housing finance by owner-occupiers in Australia since 2015 caught the attention of investors. The Reserve Bank of Australia have referenced excessive loan demand resulting from low interest rates as a reason not to lower interest rates again unless necessary.