The Indian rupee has started the new week posting fresh new gains against the US Dollar. The USD/INR exchange rate finished the first day of the week down at 70.536 and was quoted during the Asia trading hours around 70.448. The main macro theme that motivated the funds to flee the US Dollar and seek more risk into emerging market currencies was the trade war easing tensions and the rising bets that the US Federal Reserve will cut rates on its monetary policy meeting tomorrow.

The Indian stock exchange was closed on Monday due to holiday Diwali-Balipratipada. During the Asia trading hours, the NIFTY 50 was quoted around 11756 after it gaped higher at the opening price. The Indian 10-year government bond yield has registered a 0.13% surge being quoted around 6.803.

The trade agreement is expected to be ratified next month at a summit in Chile when the US President Donald Trump will meet the Chinese president Xi Jinping. As a result, the US benchmark S&P 500 index hit a record high on Monday passing the previous record established at 3027.98 from July 26. The S&P 500 is up 21% year to date and given the low-interest rate environment, the US stock market should remain an attractive investment.

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USD/INR Technical Pattern

While the USD/INR exchange rate remains range-bound, it’s threatening to break below the key support level 70.350 and subsequently try to break below the big psychological number 70.000. The mild trading activity should prevail until we have a decisive break out of this trading range.

Investors are still waiting for a market driver to trigger a breakout and the US Fed’s interest rate decision scheduled on Wednesday can be a source to disrupt the market volatility.


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