• Indian Rupee (INR) rises ahead of tomorrow’s RBI rate decision
  • Oil & rain could result in another 25 bps hike
  • US Dollar (USD) rises versus major peers
  • Weak data fuels recession fears

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is falling for a second straight day. The pair fell -0.19% in the previous session, settling at 82.09. At 15:00 UTC, USD/INR trades -0.19% at 81.93 and trades in a range of 82.83 to 82.30.

The Indian Rupee strengthened to an over three-week high against the USD on reports that foreign banks were selling dollars for corporate fundraising.

Investors will now be looking ahead to the RBI monetary policy decision due on Thursday, where the RBI could have been considering a pause in the rate hiking cycle. Instead, unseasonal rains and a shock oil production cut from OPEC+ could see the central bank recalculating its inflation outlook.

The US Dollar is falling against the Rupee but rising against its major peers. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades +0.24% at the time of writing at 101.83 snapping a two-day losing run.

The US dollar is rebounding on Wednesday despite this disappointing data, instead finding support from risk aversion.

The update today was once again weaker than expected. The ATP payroll report showed that private payrolls filed by more than expected in March to 145000, down from 242,000 in February and below the 200,000 forecast.

The data comes after the jolts job openings yesterday, which fell below 10 million for the first time in almost two years. These labour market reports point to a weakening in the jobs market ahead of Friday’s closely watched non-farm payroll report.

The US ISM services PMI also fell to 51.2 in March, down from 55.1 in February the employment sub-index also declined to 51.3 from 54. The weaker report comes hot on the heels of the weaker ISM manufacturing PMI earlier in the week. Combined, the data is pointing to an economic slowdown in the USA which is fuelling fears of a recession.