AUD/USD: Aussie at Lowest since March 2009

The Australian dollar was down against the US dollar on Friday afternoon, hitting a fresh decade low as the US reported its monthly unemployment figures with the Aussie dragged lower by a growth downgrade from the RBA and disappointing Australian economic data.

AUD/USD was lower by 62 pips (-0.92%) to 0.6739 with a daily price range of 0.666 to 0.674 as of 3pm GMT. Once the 0.67 level gave way, the currency went on to hit 11-year lows at 0.666. The daily losses erase gains from earlier in the week and set up a weekly loss of -0.28%.

AUD/USD – Lower GDP forecast from RBA knocked the Australian dollar off its perch

A lower GDP forecast for Australia from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) knocked the Australian dollar off its perch. Having been up on the week, the Aussie dropped and by Friday afternoon was on course for its sixth weekly decline versus the US dollar (AUD/USD). The RBA also lowered its expectations for wage growth and referenced external factors as a drag on the Australian economy.

Disappointing economic data on trade, consumption and the service sector added to the Aussie weakness. Australia’s trade surplous fell to 5223M from 5518M, January retail sales fell -0.5% month-over-month and the service sector fell further into contraction according to the Australian Industry Group (AiG).

The US dollar

US job growth leaped by 225,000 in January, easily above expectations of 160,000 and a notable pickup from the 145,000 in December. The data from the US labour market wasn’t uniformly positive so the reaction in the US dollar was positive but less decisive than it might have been. Wage growth gained 0.2% month-over-month, up from 0.1% in December but missed forecasts of 0.3%. The unemployment rate also unexpectedly rose slightly to 3.6% but remains at 50-year lows.

In some ways the data was ideal for financial markets, sometimes referred to as a “goldilocks” report – not too hot and not too cold. The jobs growth is good for the economy and company earnings, but the more modest wage growth limits the inflationary pressure that might have encourage the Federal Reserve to tighten policy.

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