- Pound (GBP) falls after 5 days of gains
- UK unemployment rises to 4.3% from 4%
- Euro (EUR) is rising ahead of German ZEW economic sentiment
- German inflation rises to 2% in October
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is falling after 5 days of gains. The pair rose 0.17% in the previous session, settling on Monday at €1.2074 and trading in a range between €1.2039 and €1.2105. At 11:00 UTC, GBP/EUR trades -0.17% at €1.2053.
The pound has fallen after data points to a weakening UK jobs market. UK unemployment in the three months to September rose to 4.3%, up from 4% in the previous quarter and ahead of forecasts of 4.1%.
Meanwhile, the number of employees on payroll fell by 9,000, reaching the lowest level since May 2021. Wage growth also fell to 4.8%, down from 4.9% in the three months to August. This is still above inflation of 1.7%.
A weak jobs market supports the view that the Bank of England could cut interest rates again, although the next move by the central bank is not expected until February next year. The Bank of England cut rates by 25 basis points last week, and Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey warned that the new Labour budget will likely be inflationary.
The euro is rising against the pound but has fallen sharply against the US dollar and remains depressed on concerns that Trump’s trade tariffs could hurt an already fragile economy, forcing the European Central Bank to cut rates more aggressively. Trump has pledged 10% to 20% tariffs on US imports.
Today on the economic calendar, German inflation confirmed a preliminary reading of 2% annually in October, which is in line with the ECB’s target and up from September.
German ZEW economic sentiment figures, due to be released shortly, are expected to slip to 12.8, down from 13.1. Deteriorating sentiment could pull the euro lower, especially if the report mentions the potential impact of trade tariffs.
