- Pound (GBP) is unchanged but gained across the week
- UK retail sales rise for a 3rd straight month
- Euro (EUR) fell after the ECB cut rates
- The ECB is expected to continue cutting rates.
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate was flat on Friday after gains in the previous. The pair rose 0.42% in the previous session, settling on Thursday at €1.2008 and trading in a range between €1.1940 and €1.2021. At 21:00 UTC, GBP/EUR trades -0.01% at €1.2007. The pair rose 0.5% across the week, snapping a two-week losing run.
The pound was unchanged on Friday despite UK retail sales rising by more than expected in September pointing to a resilient consumer. Retail sales rose 0.3% month on month in September, after rising 0.1% in August. This was also well ahead of forecasts of a -0.3% decline, marked the third straight monthly increase and was the strongest pace of growth since July 2022.
The data comes as wage growth continues to outpace inflation and after the Bank of England cut interest rates in August. However, sales also rose despite consumer confidence waning amid concerns over what the Budget could bring later this month.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves will unveil the first Labour budget on October 30th. She is reportedly looking to raise £40 billion through spending cuts, tax increases, and changes to the golden rules. Businesses and households alike are starting to show signs of caution ahead of the announcement.
The euro was unchanged on Friday amid a lack of fresh data. The euro fell across the week after the ECB cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, in line with expectations and as the market expects more rate cuts from the central bank over the coming months.
The ECB refrained from providing forward guidance and setting a firm timeline for the next rate cut. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde confirmed that the disinflationary process was on track – suggesting that the central bank is confident that inflation would remain at or around the central bank’s 2% target.
