- Pound (GBP) is unchanged after gains yesterday
- UK data points to ongoing rate cuts from the BoE
- Euro (EUR) is flat despite Trump withdrawing tariffs
- PMI data is due tomorrow
The Pound-Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is unchanged after gains yesterday. The pair rose 0.29% in the previous session, settling on Wednesday at €1.1493. It traded between €1.1433 and €1.1496. At 17:30 UTC on Thursday, GBP/EUR trades -0.03% lower at €1.1490.
The pound is holding steady after strong gains yesterday and as investors turn their attention back towards economic data and the Bank of England.
Data this week has painted a broadly weaker picture with the UK jobs market softening further, potentially easing the Bank of England’s worries about persistent inflationary pressures.
Meanwhile, inflation data showed that headline CPI rose by more than expected; however, this was driven by one-off factors unlikely to be repeated in the coming months. The Bank of England expects inflation to cool back towards the 2% target level by spring this year.
Attention is now turning towards UK retail sales due tomorrow, which are expected to show that sales fell 0.1% month on month in December after falling 0.1% in November. This would highlight a weak consumer at a key time of year for retailers.
Business activity data will also be in focus, with the services PMI for January expected to show a slight improvement, 51.7, up from 51.4, as the economy moved on from the chancellor’s November budget.
The euro is unchanged against the pound, but is rising against the weaker U.S. dollar after President Trump withdrew tariff threats. Trump had threatened tariffs on 8 European countries at the weekend to start February 1st if he wasn’t able to acquire Greenland.
Trump yesterday dialled back his threats and announced a framework deal, fueling a positive market reaction, except in the dollar, which slumped.
Attention will now turn to eurozone PMI figures, which are expected to show that manufacturing activity contracted at a slightly slower pace in January, while the service sector activity expanded at a faster pace of 52.8, up from 52.4.
