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GBP/EUR: The pound rises versus EUR despite unemployment rising

17th July 2025

Pound (GBP) is rising after losses yesterday
UK unemployment rose to 4.7% a 4-year high
Euro (EUR) is falling as trade news is awaited
Eurozone inflation was 2.3% YoY in June

The Pound-Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is rising, recovering yesterday’s losses. The pair fell -0.09% in the previous session, settling on Wednesday at €1.1525. It traded between €1.1492 and €1.1566. At 09:30, GBP/EUR trades +0.34% at €1.1564.

The pound is falling against the USD but rising against the weaker EUR as the UK labour market weakens further.

Data from the Office for National Statistics showed that UK unemployment unexpectedly ticked higher to 4.7% in the three months to May, up from 4.6% previously. Meanwhile, payrolls fell by 41,000, a larger drop than expected, and wage growth slowed to 5% although this was slightly above the 4.9% forecast.

At the start of the week, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey warned that the central bank may need to cut interest rates more aggressively if the UK labour market continues to weaken. His comments come as other policymakers have also highlighted their concerns over the cooling jobs market.

The data came after inflation figures yesterday showed that consumer prices rose by more than expected to 3.6% YoY, up from 3.4%, highlighting the challenge that the central bank has with policy. Even so, the market is pricing in an 80% probability that the BoE will cut rates in August.

The euro is falling against the stronger USD and the pound as investors wait for news regarding a EU-US trade deal. Witgought a deal, Trump will apply 30% tariffs to EU imports from August 1^st.

On the data front, eurozone inflation confirmed the preliminary reading of 2.3% year-on-year. The ECB is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 2% when it meets next week, with policymakers likely to be in a wait-and-see mood ahead of Trump’s August 1st deadline. The central bank is still expected to cut rates once more this year. A large trade tariff could slow growth in the eurozone considerably and may force the ECB to cut rates further.