- Indian Rupee (INR) rises for a fourth day
- RBI forecast 7.6% GDP in Q3
- US Dollar (USD) rises as the Trump trade resumes
- Fed speakers are in focus
The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is falling for a fourth straight day. The pair fell 0.01% in the previous session, settling on Tuesday at 84.42. On Tuesday at 17:300 UTC, USD/INR trades down 0.05% at 84.41 and traded in a range of 84.33 to 84.41.
The Rupee is gaining for a fourth straight day despite a stronger U.S. dollar.
According to the Reserve Bank of India, economic growth in the country is expected to pick up in the current quarter after slowing from July to September, thanks to a recovery in private consumption across the festive season.
In its monthly bulletin, the RBI forecast Q3 GDP at 7.6%, faster than the 6.7% forecast in the second quarter.
Yet despite the solid growth forecast, the central banks expressed concerns over rising core inflation. Earlier in the month, data showed that inflation in India reached its highest level in 14 months, lifted by surging food prices.
Annual retail inflation reached 6.2% annually in October, reaching above the RBI’s tolerance band of 2% to 6% for the first time in over a year.
The US Dollar is falling against the Rupee but rising against its major peers. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, rose 0.45%, trading at 106.68 after losing ground in the previous two sessions.
Meanwhile, the US dollar was driving higher against its major peers, resuming the Trump trade after falling to a weekly low on profit-taking.
Today, the US economic calendar is quiet. Instead, attention will be on Fed speakers, with several officials scheduled to talk.
The market will be scrutinizing the Fed’s comments closely for clues over the outlook for rate cuts.
Expectations for the path for rate cuts have been reined in. Markets now price in a 59% chance for a 25 basis point cut in the December meeting, down from over 80% a week ago.
The market expects the Fed to cut rates in the December meeting but sees fewer cuts in 2025 than expected a month ago owing to the risk of high inflation from Trump’s policies.
