- Pound (GBP) is falling and is set to fall across the week
- UK Q3 GDP eased to 0.1% QoQ in Q3
- Euro (EUR) is rising after German wholesale prices fall
- Gains could be limited amid political uncertainty in German
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is falling modestly after modest gains yesterday. The pair rose 0.02% in the previous session, settling on Thursday at €1.2026 and trading in a range between €1.2009 and €1.2039. At 17:00 UTC, GBP/EUR trades -0.48% at €1.1964.
The pound is falling lower on Friday after UK GDP data showed that the UK economy stalled in the third quarter.
According to the latest data from the Office of National Statistics, the UK economy grew by just 0.1% in the wrong quarter in the July to September quarter, and the economy shrank by 0.1% in September.
The growth was slower than the 0.2% expected by economists, which is a blow to the Labour government’s plans to deliver higher growth. Ahead of the elections, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he wanted growth of 2.5% a year.
The data came after Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, in a speech at Mansion House, warned about the impact that Brexit was having on the UK economy.
The euro is rising and is set to rise across the week after steep losses last week. German wholesale prices fell 0.8% in October, marking the 18th straight month of declines but the slowest pace of declines in three months.
However, gains in the euro may be limited given the ongoing political uncertainty in Germany after the coalition government collapsed and the new election will likely be in February.
Along with political uncertainty in Germany, concerns over the potential impact of trade tariffs could also prevent strong gains in the euro.
Looking ahead, next week is a relatively quiet week for the euro. Eurozone business activity data will be released on Friday, and ECB President Christine Lagarde will also speak. The market will be looking for clues over whether the ECB could cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points.
