- Pound (GBP) is rising after losses yesterday
- BoE chief economist Huw Pill is to speak
- Euro (EUR) falls amid political gridlock
- German inflation data is due tomorrow
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is rising after losses yesterday. The pair fell 0.07% in the previous session, settling on Tuesday at €1.18319 and trading in a range between €1.1818 and €1.1847. At 13:00 UTC, GBP/EUR trades +0.11% at €1.1832.
The pound is rising as the UK elections are firmly in the rearview mirror, and attention is back on the Bank of England and monetary policy expectations.
BoE policymakers are coming out of the blackout period that surrounds the election campaign.
Earlier in the week policymaker and known hawk Jonathan Haskel warned over cutting interest rates too early.
Today, attention is on BoE chief economist Huw Pill, whose opinions are considered more representative of the Monetary Policy Committee.
Investors will be watching for signs that the central bank is preparing the market for an August rate cut, which could happen given that Pill has said previously that a rate cut over the summer was a possibility.
Inflation in the UK has fallen back to 2%, the Bank of England’s target, although wage growth and service sector inflation remain sticky. The market is currently pricing in a 60% chance of a rate cut in August.
The euro is heading lower amid a lack of fresh data and as markets continue digesting the French election result. The left-wing alliance won the election but failed to secure a majority.
Political chaos continues in the eurozone’s largest economy. A hung parliament and gridlock mean more uncertainty and the paralysis could last months as complicated talks lie ahead. Negotiations between party chiefs will determine whether a coalition government can be formed with a majority of 289 seats. Failing that, a minority government that can survive a no-confidence vote could be formed.
Macron was a huge presence in Europe, but now he is distracted by troubles at home.
Looking ahead tomorrow sees the release of German inflation data, which is expected to confirm the preliminary reading of 2.2%
