- Pound (GBP) falls but gains across the week
- BoE rate decision is due next week
- Euro (EUR) struggles this week after French election shock
- Worries of higher debt levels hit EUR
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is falling, giving back recent gains. The pair rose 0.37% in the previous week, settling on Thursday at €1.1878 and trading in a range between €1.1822 and €1.1788. At 18:00 UTC, GBP/EUR trades -0.25% at €1.1857. The pair is set to rise 0.7% this week, marking a fifth straight weekly gain.
The pound is falling but has risen across the week and remains near a 22-month high in risk-off trade as investors look ahead to UK inflation data and the Bank of England interest rate decision next week.
UK data has shown signs of weakening as the UK economy stalled and unemployment rose to a 2 1/2-year high; However, service sector inflation and wage growth are still likely too strong for the central bank to consider cutting interest rates this month.
With no rate cut expected, the focus will be on updated forecasts, particularly inflation forecasts, as well as comments by Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey. His comments could provide further clues over whether the central bank will cut interest rates in the August meeting.
The euro is rising against the pound but falling sharply against the USD amid rising worries over political uncertainty in the region.
French President Macron’s decision to call a snap election has raised concerns that the next French government could increase spending and push France to dangerous levels.
In addition to political uncertainty, investors will be looking to ECB president Christine Lagarde’s speech later today. Investors will be watching closely for any clues about when the ECB may look to cut interest rates again after reducing rates by 25 basis points the previous week.
The eurozone economic calendar is relatively quiet today, with just the trade balance.
Yesterday, German wholesale inflation cooled by more than expected, falling 0.2% month on month and may be down from 0.4% in April.
