- Indian Rupee (INR) is falling after gains yesterday
- The RBI rate decision is due tomorrow
- US Dollar (USD) falls versus its major peers
- US consumer confidence rises
The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is rising after yesterday’s losses. The pair fell -0.18% in the previous session, settling on Wednesday at 83.37. At 19:00 UTC, USD/INR trades +0.15% at 83.49 and is in a range of 83.52 to 83.32.
The Indian Rupee is falling despite domestic equities recovering for a second straight day after steep losses following the election results.
Election headlines are still in focus as attention turns to the Reserve Bank of India’s Interest rate decision tomorrow. The central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates on hold at 6.5% for an 8th straight month, given the robust economic growth and the uncertain outlook following the election result.
The reduced majority for Narendra Modi’s party means a weaker mandate. This raises concerns over fiscal populism and increased welfare spending, which could stoke inflation.
The US Dollar is rising against the Rupee but falling versus its major peers. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades at -0.02% at the time of writing at 104.58, after losses in the previous session.
The US dollar is falling against its major peers after small gains yesterday as signs of a cooling the US labor market boost Fed rate cut expectations.
Data showed that US jobless claims rose by more than expected, increasing by 229K, up from 221K in the previous week and well ahead of the 220K that economists had predicted.
The data comes after weaker-than-expected ADP private payrolls yesterday and softer-than-expected jolts job openings earlier in the week. The data is increasingly pointing to a cooling US labor market, which could result in easing wage growth and inflationary pressures. This, in turn, could encourage the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates sooner.
The market pushed aside stronger-than-expected ISM services PMI data yesterday, which came, after the weak of ISM manufacturing PMI data earlier in the week.
The market is currently pricing in at 65% probability that the Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates in September, which is up considerably from the 50% probability just last week
