- Indian Rupee (INR) is inching lower but remains supported
- Rural Indian demand shows signs of recovering
- US Dollar (USD) rises versus its major peers
- Fed speakers are in focus
The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is inching higher for a second day. The pair rose 0.02% in the previous session, settling on Monday at 83.31. At 17:00 UTC, USD/INR trades +0.01% at 83.32 and trades in a range of 83.23 to 83.36.
The Indian Rupee is supported against the stronger U.S. dollar amid signs of a recovery in rural Indian spending.
According to the Reserve Bank of India’s monthly bulletin, recent indicators point to a quickening of aggregate demand momentum, particularly within personal consumption.
Rural demand for fast-moving consumer goods has outpaced urban markets for the first time in two years, with volume growth in rural regions of 7.6% relative to urban growth of 5.7%.
Meanwhile, the heat wave in India continues, and concerns are arising that the extreme high temperatures could result in falling productivity, hurting India’s GDP.
The US Dollar is falling against the Rupee but rising against its major peers. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades at +0.03% at the time of writing at 104.64 adding to gains in the previous session.
The U.S. dollar is edging higher on Tuesday after slightly more hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials who said they favour waiting for inflation to cool before cutting interest rates.
Fed governor Christopher Waller said he needs to see several more months of good inflation figures before considering cutting interest rates.
Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated his position that inflation will continue to cool but slowly and that the Federal Reserve will likely start cutting rates in the final quarter of the year.
The markets are pricing in a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged in the June 11 to 12 meeting while pricing in just a 25% probability of a rate cut in the July 30 to 31 meeting.
Amid a lack of fresh economic data, Fed speakers are driving the market, but so far, there hasn’t really been anything that the traders haven’t expected.
Attention will now turn to the FOMC meeting minutes, which are due to be released tomorrow. In the meeting, the Fed left interest rates on hold, and in the press conference following the meeting Jerome Powell ruled out further rate hikes.
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