• Indian Rupee (INR) is rising after small losses yesterday
  • India’s weighting in the MSCI Global Standard Index rises
  • US Dollar (USD)falls versus its major peers
  • US CPI cools by more than expected

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is falling after small gains yesterday. The pair rose 0.02% in the previous session, settling on Wednesday at 83.51. At 19:00 UTC, USD/INR trades -0.13% at 83.41 and trades in a range of 83.40 to 83.95.

The Rupee is rising, capitalizing on the weaker USD and boosted by news that India’s weight on the MSCI Global Standard Index, which tracks emerging stocks has risen to another record high. This lifts the prospects of more inflows into the equity market, which can lift demand for the Rupee.

India’s weight will rise from 18.2% to 19% in a change announced today, effective May 31. Meanwhile, China’s weighting in the index will fall to 25% from 25.4%.

The US Dollar is falling across the board. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades at -0.73% at the time of writing at 104.30, marking the third straight day of losses.

The U.S. dollar is falling after weaker-than-expected inflation, and retail sales data support the view that the Federal Reserve could start to cut interest rates this year.

US inflation cooled more than expected to 0.3% month over month in April, down from 0.4% in March. This was also below the 0.4% analysts expected. Core inflation, which excludes more volatile items such as food and fuel, also cooled.

Meanwhile, US retail sales weakened to 0% in April, down from 0.6% in March and beow the 0.4% forecast.

Cooling inflation and weaker sales raise the prospect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates, and the market is now fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut before the end of the year.

The markets are also pricing in 75% probability that the Fed will cut rates in September, which is up from 65% prior to the data.