• Pound (GBP) falls in risk-off trade
  • UK Q1 GDP grows 0.1% MoM in February
  • Euro (EUR) struggles amid ECB rate cut expectations
  • German inflation cools to 2.2%

The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is edging lower after gains in the previous session. The pair rose 0.07% in the previous session, settling on Thursday at €1.1704 and trading in a range between €1.1668 and €1.1707. At 10:00 UTC, GBP/EUR trades -0.07% at €1.1697.

The pound is struggling against the euro in risk-off trade as fears of an Iran attack on Israel grow and despite investors digesting the latest UK GDP data.

The UK economy appears to have moved out of recession in the first quarter of this year.

UK GDP grew 0.1% month on month in February after rising 0.2% in January.

The reading was in line with expectations and suggests that the economy has recovered from a narrow recession at the end of last year.

This week has been a quiet week for economic data, but things are likely to get busier next week with UK jobs data and inflation figures on tap. The data will provide further clues about when the Bank of England may cut interest rates.

The market is pricing in a 50/50 probability that the first-rate cut will come in June and is expecting the central bank to cut rates twice throughout the year.

Meanwhile, the euro is struggling as the market grows increasingly confident that the European Central Bank will start cutting interest rates at the June meeting.

Yesterday, the ECB left rates on hold at the 4% record level and sent signals that June could be the start of the rate cuts. Inflation in the region has fallen to within a breath of the BCB’s 2% target.

German inflation data is also in focus as it cooled to 2.2% in March, down from 2.5% in February. This was in line with the preliminary reading. The data supports the view that the ECB could cut rates at the next meeting.

Next week is a quieter week for economic data from the eurozone region.