GBP/EUR: Will UK Inflation Data Pull Pound Lower?
  • Pound (GBP) has taken a back seat this week
  • Services PMI data is due
  • Euro (EUR) falls after a 25 bps rate hike
  • Retail sales are due

The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is rising for a third straight day. The pair rose 0.5% in the previous session, settling on Thursday at €1.1415, after trading in a range between €1.1345 – €1.1437. At 05:45 UTC, GBP/EUR trades +0.03% at €1.1417. The pair is set to gain 0.2% across the week, marking the third straight week of gains.

The euro fell in the previous session despite the ECB raising interest rates by 25 basis points taking the interest rate to 3.25%.

In the following press conference, ECB president Christine Lagarde was clear that the ECB had more work to do to bring down inflation which rose to 7%  year on year in April. The market expects the ECB to hike rates by 25 basis points on two more occasions to lift the rate to 3.75% by July, which would match its highest-ever level in 2001.

However, the euro fell despite the hawkish message, with some analysts suggesting that the fact that the ECB has slowed rate hikes means that the peak must be near.

Looking ahead., attention now turns to eurozone retail sales, which are expected to fall -0.1% MoM, down from -0.8%.

The pound pushed higher in the previous session after the UK services PMI was upwardly revised in April and as the data showed that business passed on the higher wage cost to consumers adding pressure on the BoE to continue raising interest rates.

The S&P Global CIPS UK services PMI rose to 55.9 from 52.9 in March, hi I’m on the provisional reading of 54.9.

The data adds to a series of stronger-than-expected measures for the economy, which had been heading for a recession in early 2023. Official mortgage and consumer lending data also surprised to the upside on Thursday.

Looking ahead, UK economic calendar is relatively quiet, with just the construction PMI data expected, which is due to show that activity expanded at a slightly faster pace in April at 51 up from 50.7 in March.