- Pound (GBP) struggles on BoE warning
- UK services PMI expected to remain resilient
- Euro (EUR) rises on hawkish ECB comment
- EZ PMIs due & French elections at the weekend
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is falling on Friday for a fifth straight session. The pair settled -0.17% lower on Thursday at €1.2017 after trading between €1.1949 – €1.2056. At 05:45 UTC, GBP/EUR trades -0.03% at €1.2011.
The pound fell in the previous session after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned about the economic outlook for the UK. He considered that the rising cost of living, the squeeze on household incomes, and rising interest rates would slow economic growth in the coming month.
Today, after a quiet week on the data front, there is plenty of data for pound investors to digest. First GFK consumer confidence tanked to -38 in April the second-lowest reading since records began 50 years ago as rising inflation and cost of living crisis hurt households’ confidence.
Attention will now shift to UK retail sales which are expected to fall -0.3% month on month in March after falling -0.3% in February. The softer sales are expected as disposable income declines.
UK PMI data is expected to be more upbeat with the dominant services sector expected to see just a small slowdown in activity with the PMI slipping to 60 from 62.6. The figure 50 separates expansion from contraction.
The euro gained in the previous session and is pushing higher today amid more hawkish comments from European Central Bank policymakers. Even the usually dovish Vice President De Guindos hinted toward a July interest rate hike from the central bank.
Today attention is back on the economic calendar with the release of business activity data from the region. The Eurozone is expected to see the composite PMI, a good gauge for business activity slip to 53.9 in April down from 54.9 in March. A larger than forecast fall in business activity could hurt demand for the euro.
Looking aheaed this weekend is the French Presidential elections. Macron is in the lead in the polls. However, a Marine Le Pen surprise win could send the euro lower next week.