• US Dollar rises on safe haven flows as election results are still too close to call
  • Trump has performed better than expected & Democrats fail to flip Senate (so far)
  • Stimulus expectations are being reined in
  • Eurozone service sector PMI to show deeper contraction

After rallying in the previous session, the Euro US Dollar exchange rate is trending southwards on Wednesday.  The pair gained a solid 0.6% in the previous session, settling at US$1.1711, towards the high of the day. At 07:15 UTC, EUR/USD trades down -0.4% at US$1.1665.

The US Dollar is surging across the board as the US elections go down to the wires. Whilst Joe Biden booked some early wins, he failed to take some key states. The betting odds also shifted favouring a Trump win. However, it is still too close to call with key swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin not expected to have their results declared anytime soon.

Trump has performed much better than the polls expected. On the other hand, Joe Bidden has not made the progress that the polls guided for.

Congress is also going down to the wire. The Democrats have not flipped as many seats as the polls had indicated in the Senate. This is key, because even if Joe Biden wins but fails to flip the Senate then more fiscal stimulus deadlock could be expected which is unfavourable for both risk sentiment and stocks. In this scenario, any fiscal stimulus package which does make it through the Senate is likely to be significantly smaller than the huge aid that a blue wave would have brought. As a result, investors are seeking out the safe haven properties of the US Dollar.

The US elections will remain a key driver for the markets as results continue to come in. Investors will also look ahead to US ADP payroll data and ISM non-manufacturing PMI figures later today ahead of Friday’s non farm payroll report.

Euro investors will look towards the service sector PMI figures which are expected to show a deeper contraction in October than September as covid cases surge and lockdown measures tighten.