• Pound (GBP) recovers after Brexit weighed on demand at the beginning o the week
  • UK coronavirus statistics show no sign of second wave
  • Euro (EUR) look ahead to German GP data and German IFO Business sentiment figures
  • Signs of sentiment slipping as second wave fears grow on mainland Europe

The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is advancing after two consecutive sessions of losses. The pair settled on Monday -0.14% at €1.1081, after picking up from session lows of €1.1057.

At 05:15 UTC, GBP/EUR trades +0.16% as it looks to break through €1.11.

Brexit concerns lingered at the start of the week, dragging on the Pound. A lack of progress in last weeks’ Brexit trade talks, the 7th round of talks, raises the prospect of the UK leaving the EU on unfavourable World Trade Organisation terms.

Today investors are pushing aside Brexit anxieties, instead focusing on encouraging coronavirus statistics, which show the number of new cases remaining steady in the UK around the 1000 mark.

Today is a big data day for the Euro. First up is the final German Q2 GDP figure. Analysts are not expecting the print to reveal anything new as far as how the Eurozone’s largest economy performed through the coronavirus lockdown. A -10.1% contraction is expected to be confirmed. This is backward looking data. The main focus is now much more on how the economy is performing and how it performed over the last few months.

The closely followed German IFO indicator of economic business sentiment rose to a post pandemic high of 90.5 in July after dropping to a low of 74.2 in April. However, as the number of new daily covid cases rise, fears over a second wave are starting to unnerve businesses. As a result, the IFO Business Climate Sentiment Index could struggle to return to the mid to high 90’s – where the index was before the pandemic erupted. A weak reading could unnerve investors who were rattled following soft PMI numbers at the end of last week.