numbers-and-inr-currency-symbol - INR
  • Indian Rupee (INR) weakens slightly as BofA Securities forecast a deeper economic contraction and weaker inflation
  • RBI forecast to cut rates by 1%
  • US Dollar (USD) advances versus major peers although rebound could be short lived ahead of expectations of a dovish Fed
  • US consumer confidence forecast to fade as American coronavirus cases rise

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is pushing mildly higher for a second straight session. The pair settled on Monday +0.05% at 74.80. At 10:15 USD/INR trades +0.05% at 74.84.

The Indian Rupee is edging lower amid more pessimistic calls from analysts over the prospects of a full economic recovery in India.  Bank of America Securities now forecast Indian GDP to contract -6% in FY2020-21 as a base case scenario amid surging covid cases and re-imposed lockdowns. This is 2% worse than initially feared.

BofA Securities also expect the Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India to cut interest rates by a further 1%, more than the 0.75% projected.  Inflation is forecast to decline to 2.5% in the second half of the fiscal year, down from 6.3% in July.

The US Dollar is pushing higher versus its major peers as the focus turns to the Federal Reserve and the US fiscal stimulus package. The US dollar has been under pressure across the past 10 days as investors fretted over the damage from the coronavirus to the US economy.

Today the greenback has seen an injection of life however analysts are dubious that the uptick will be maintained given the dovish tone that the Fed is expected to adopt. The US central bank started its 2-day meeting today which will conclude tomorrow. Officials at the Fed have started talking regularly about allowing inflation to rise above target before tightening.

US consumer confidence data is drawing into focus. Market expectations are for optimism to fade in July after rebounding in June. As coronavirus cases continue to surge, parts of the sunbelt go into lockdown and the labour market recovery stalls, consumer confidence is starting to ease. Falling consumer sentiment is bad news for a consumer depend economy such as the US economy.