- IMF lowers global GDP forecast to -4.9% in 2020 vs -3% forecast in April, hitting risk sentiment
- Demand for riskier Australian Dollar (AUD) drops as global & US coronavirus cases soar
- US Dollar rises on safe haven flows, jobless claims & durable goods data due tomorrow
- At 14:15 UTC, Australian Dollar US Dollar exchange rate -0.4% to US$0.69
After rallying 1.4% across the previous 2 sessions, the Australian Dollar is taking a leg lower versus the US Dollar on Wednesday.
At 14:15 UTC, AUD/USD is trading -0.4% finding support at US$0.6900, this is towards the lower end of the daily traded range as risk aversion dominates.
The mood in the market has darkened mid-week, as investors grow increasingly concerned that accelerating coronavirus infections could impact the economic recovery. The US has seen daily new covid-19 cases over 25,000 for the fifth straight day, whilst Brazil has seen 39,436 new cases.
The International Monetary Fund downgraded its outlook for the world economy. The IMF is now forecasting a deeper recession and a slower recovery than just two months ago as coronavirus continues to devastate economies across the globe.
The IMF is now forecasting a -4.9% contraction in global GDP, down from -3% that it pencilled in in April. The international agency lowered its outlook for 2021 to growth of 5.4%, down from 5.8%.
The IMF has downgraded its outlook on the belief that the economic scarring from the supply and demand shock caused by lockdown will be much deeper. The continued social distancing measures and other safety measures will also keep growth depressed for longer.
The IMF predictions boosted risk aversion in the markets, making riskier assets and currencies such as the Australian Dollar less attractive. US stocks markets have also opened significantly lower. Meanwhile, risk off sentiment has lifted the US Dollar as investors seek refuge in its safe haven properties.
There is no high impacting Australian or US data due for release today. Instead sentiment will continue driving the pair.
Attention will then move towards US jobless claims and durable goods data due for release tomorrow, which is expected to show a frustratingly slow improvement in the US economy. Initial jobless claims are due to increase 1.3 million, only slightly lower than last week’s 1.5 million. Meanwhile durable goods are expected to rebound +2.5% in May, up from -7.7%.