- Euro (EUR) surges as ECB exceeds market expectations with €600 billion extension to PEPP
- German factory orders plunge -25.8% vs -19.7%
- Safe haven US Dollar (USD) slips ahead of US jobs data 8 million jobs losses forecast
- At 08:00 UTC, EUR/USD trades +0.3% at US$1.1365
The Euro is rallying higher versus the US Dollar for a ninth straight session on Friday, marking the longest stretch of gains for the pair since April 2011.
At 08:00 UTC, EUR/USD is trading +0.3% at US$1.1365 following additional stimulus from the European Central Bank, dire German factory orders data and ahead of the US jobs report.
The ECB expanded its emergency bond buying programme on Thursday, as was widely expected. However, the central bank added an additional €600 billion in purchases, ahead of the €250 – €500 billion that the market was anticipating. The Euro rallied, encouraged by the central bank’s willingness to support the economy
The ECB backed this larger than expected response to the coronavirus crisis because it considered that economic improvements so far had been “tepid”. A lowering of economic projections supported the ECB’s move.
Today’s German factory orders also supported the ECB’s weaker outlook. Factory orders plunged in April, at a much faster rate than expected as coronavirus ravaged the global economy causing demand to dry up.
Factory orders plunged -25.8%, worse than the -19.7% forecast. However, the data comes as the German economy continues to reopen. Investors continue to focus on reopening optimism, shrugging off the dismal data.
The US Dollar is slipping lower in early trade as broad risk on sentiment in financial markets is dragging on demand for the safe haven currency. Investors are showing an extraordinary ability to shrug off shocking data and focus on the positives.
Today investors will look ahead to the release of US non-farm payroll data, the most closely watched macro release each month. Analysts are expecting 8 million jobs to have been lost across May. A terrible figure. However, it is significantly better than the 25 million job losses recorded in April.
The unemployment rate is expected to print at 19.5%, a level last seen in the Great Depression of the 1930’s, and up from April’s 14.7%.
The ADP private payroll report, a lead indicator for the non-farm payroll beat expectations by a significant margin in May. This suggests that the US jobs report could also surprise to the upside.
