GBP/USD: Pound vs. Dollar Awaits Fed's Clues On Monetary Policy
  • EU recovery fund runs into obstacles
  • EZ inflation expected +0.4% yoy, below ECB 2% target
  • Doubts surface over Moderna’s vaccine potential
  • At 08:15 EUR/USD +0.3% at US$1.0950 >> Real time exchange rates

The Euro is on the rise for the fourth straight session versus the US Dollar. The Euro US Dollar exchange rate settled on Tuesday +0.1% higher at US$1.0923, slightly off the high of US$1.0977.

At 08:15 UTC, EUR/USD is +0.3% at $1.0950. This is towards the upper end of the daily traded range of US$1.0918 – US$1.0960. The pair has traded within the familiar range of US$1.08 – US$1.10 since the end of March.

The mood in the market is mixed on Wednesday as optimism surrounding a potential vaccine and the EU rescue fund fades and as investors look ahead to the release of the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.

The Euro remains well supported by the German – French agreed €500 billion recovery fund. Although, the plan has already run into some obstacles less than 24 hours after being announced. The recovery fund would see the European Union collectively finance its response to the coronavirus crisis in the region. The plan has already been opposed by the Netherlands and several other countries.

Eurozone inflation data is in focus. Analysts are expecting inflation in the bloc to increase at just 0.4% year on year in April. Core inflation, which excludes more volatile items such as food and fuel, is expected to increase by 0.9% compared to a year earlier. These figures are significantly below the ECB’s 2% target and could bolster the chances of further ECB easing action.

The US Dollar is pushing broadly higher versus its major peers as investors seek out its safe haven properties. Scepticism over a potential vaccine for covid-19 is weighing on risk sentiment across the financial markets.

A report on STAT, a medical website, cast doubts over Moderna’s vaccine, saying that insufficient data was submitted to determine the efficacy of the vaccine.

Investors will now look ahead to the release of the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting. At this meeting in April, the Fed left rates unchanged. The minutes will be scrutinised closely for any clues or hints on any new polices that the Fed are considering, but especially on negative interest rates.

Given that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has been on TV and giving a testimony before the Senate banking committee over the past few days, the minutes are unlikely to reveal anything new.


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