GBP/USD U.S. Jobs Data May Seal the Deal on June Rate Hike and Boost Dollar

The Pound versus US Dollar exchange rate is edging lower in early trade as investors continue digesting the worst US jobless claims ever from the previous session and as they look ahead to the US non-farm payroll data later today.

The Pound US Dollar exchange rate closed Thursday +0.1% higher at US$1.2394 after a volatile session that saw the pair trade 120-point range.

At 07:30 UTC, GBP/USD is trading -0.1% lower at US$1.2377, with attention firmly on the US economic calendar.

100,000 US Job Losses Forecast, More To Come In April

Yesterday’s jobless claims data shows that the US economy is in trouble, big trouble. More than 6.6 million people filed for unemployment benefits last week. This was, by far, the worst report ever and reveals the dire health of the US economy. The data dragged on demand for the US dollar.

Today investors will turn their attention to the first US non-farm payroll to see the impact of the coronavirus hit to the labour market. Analysts are forecasting just –100,000 job losses to be reported. The number is so low compared to the 6.6 million signing up for unemployment benefit just last week because, like the ADP private payroll data, NFP’s measure up until 12th March. The first US state to lock down was California on 20th March.

The state-wide stay at home directives then quickly moved to other states. By the end of the month millions of businesses had laid off staff or collapsed. Consequently, the full impact of the virus won’t be seen until the April payroll report.

In addition to 100,000 job losses, the unemployment rate is expected to increase to 3.8% from 3.5%. Meanwhile average wages are expected to grow 0.2%, down from 0.3%.

UK Service Sector To Contract Further

Today, investors will focus on the impact of coronavirus on the UK service sector. The final revision of the service sector PMI for March is expected to show a deeper contraction to 34.8, down from 35.7. A weaker reading could drag the Pound lower.

The Pound is being underpinned by increasing expectations that the Brexit transition period will be extended. The official line from Boris Johnson is that the date stays as 31st December. However, the fact that there are no meetings going on and that the government has no bandwidth for anything other than coronavirus, suggests otherwise.