USD/HUF: Forint down after Hungary trade surplous cut by two thirds

• HUF, on the backfoot since industrial output data fell 1.2% YoY
• Forex traders are counting the hours until Friday’s non-farm payrolls (NFP) report

The US dollar is higher against the Hungarian forint on Friday morning with expectations growing ahead of monthly US unemployment figures released later following a stream of impressive US economic statistics. Meanwhile, disappointing trade data from Hungary sent the forint lower.

USD/HUF exchange rate was higher by 143 pips (+0.48%) to 309.18 with a daily range of 307.24 to 309.39 as of 10am GMT. The small gains this morning add to the +0.72% gain made on Wednesday, bringing the weekly return to +0.81%.

USD/HUF – Forint, on the backfoot since industrial output data fell 1.2%

The forint has been on the backfoot since industrial output data for Hungary fell 1.2% year-over-year was released on Thursday. The losses accelerated on Friday following the reports showing the country’s trade surplous had slumped to EUR 134M in December, down from EUR 484M. It is being taken as one of the first signs of an economic slowdown in Hungary, as well as the wider Central and Eastern European region predicted by economists.

Forex traders are counting the hours until Friday’s non-farm payrolls (NFP) report

Typically there will be very little movement in the lead up, but the dollar is being bid ahead of the report thanks to almost all the other labour market statistics pointing to a strong number.

One of the biggest sources of optimism for NFP, which is release by the Bureau for Labour Statistics (BLS) is a separate report that was released by the ADP Research Institute on Wednesday. The ADP report was much better than expected by economists, in fact it was the highest reading since 2015.

Expectations are that 160,000 American jobs were created in January, higher than the 145,000 in December but less than the 12-month average of 170,000. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% from 0.1% in December while the unemployment rate should stay unchanged at 3.5%.

On top of the strong economic performance of the US economy according to data released this week, forex markets are taking some solace from the relative political certainty of US President Donald Trump’s impeachment acquittal and from the reduction in tariffs by China announced on Thursday.

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