USD/PKR: Rupee Gains Pared, US Data String and SBP Policy Meeting now in Focus

Monday’s trade saw USD/PKR within the range 154.40-154.59. The pair closed flat at 154.40, as coronavirus headlines weighed on market sentiment, triggering a move into safe haven assets.

Recent PKR gains were capped after the latest reports stated the coronavirus had already caused the deaths of 80 people in China and infected almost 2 800 people internationally. Concerns over the outbreak’s impact on global economy also deepened.

The US Dollar Index was up 0.05% to 97.98 in late Asian trade on Tuesday, while being close to yesterday’s eight-week high of 98.00.

Today’s focus will be on the US durable goods orders report at 13:30 GMT. New orders for manufactured durable goods probably rose 0.5% in December from a month ago, according to market expectations, following an unexpected 2.0% slump in November.

The value of durable goods orders, excluding transportation items, probably rose at a monthly rate of 0.2% in December, according to expectations, after remaining flat in November.

In case the general index rose at a faster-than-expected rate in December, this would have a strong bullish effect on USD, because of positive implications regarding the wider gauge of production activity, factory orders.

At 14:00 GMT Standard & Poor’s/Case-Schiller will report on the performance of their House Price Index, which measures the change in values of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas across the US. According to market consensus estimate, home prices in the 20 areas probably rose 2.4% in November compared to November 2018.

Meanwhile, confidence among US consumers probably improved in January, with the corresponding index coming in at 128.0, according to expectations. In December, the gauge was reported at 126.5, or the lowest reading since October. In case the index rebounded at a sharper-than-expected rate in January, this would have a strong bullish effect on the USD. The Conference Board research group will release the official data at 15:00 GMT.

PKR traders will also consider the interest rate decision by the Monetary Policy Committee of State Bank of Pakistan. At its most recent policy meeting the central bank left the benchmark rate at an 8-year high of 13.25%, since it has been battling excessively high levels of inflation.

USD/PKR was edging up 0.09% to 154.54 in late Asian session on Tuesday.

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