USD/HUF Tests Two-Week Lows in Thin Trade, Set for 5.4% Annual Gain 

Monday’s trade saw USD/HUF within the range 294.570-296.340. The pair closed 0.03% higher at 295.510 and was on track for a 5.4% annual gain. HUF has managed to advance roughly 4.4% since its 2019 low of 308.10, registered on October 1st.

Trade optimism continued to suppress demand for safe haven assets, pushing USD/HUF down for a test of December 16th low of 294.280. In an interview with Fox News, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said on Monday that the US and China would likely sign their “Phase One” trade deal “within the next week or so”. He said that the 86-page agreement included details on intellectual property, “a good start” on forced technology transfers and “some good language on currency manipulation”. 

The exotic pair seemed to have ignored upbeat US macro data released yesterday. Contracts to buy previously owned homes were reported to have soared 7.4% year-on-year in November, easily beating the median analyst estimate (+5.8%). It has been the sharpest annual increase in US pending home sales since June 2015.

A separate report showed the Chicago Business Barometer had improved more than anticipated to a reading of 48.9 in December from 46.3 in November. Still, the index remained in the area of contraction for a fourth consecutive month, as the sub-indexes of production, new orders, order backlogs, employment and inventories all stood below the 50.0 threshold. 

The US Dollar Index was 0.04% weaker to 96.70 in late Asian trade on Tuesday. 

In terms of economic calendar, today traders will be focusing on the US home price and consumer confidence reports for clues over housing market strength and consumer spending trends. Standard & Poor’s/Case-Schiller will release their monthly report at 14:00 GMT, while the Conference Board research group will report on consumer sentiment at 15:00 GMT. 

HUF traders will also consider the monthly report by the Hungarian Association of Logistics, Purchasing and Inventory Management on manufacturing sector conditions in the country. Industrial activity has expanded at the fastest rate since June in November, as the respective Purchasing Managers’ Index came in at a reading of 53.0, up from 52.0 in October. The official data for December is due out on Thursday. 

USD/HUF was down 0.06% to 295.320 in late Asian session on Tuesday.


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