GBP/INR: Rupee Down on India’s Wholesale Inflation, GDP Outlook

GBP/INR is surging in early trading on Monday. Currently, the pair is trading at 95.111, up 0.76% as of 6:38 AM UTC. The price has gained over 3% since last Thursday’s low at 92.275, touched before the UK election that saw UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party securing a major victory.

Earlier today, India released its wholesale price inflation data, which came below analysts’ forecasts. The Ministry of Commerce and Industry said that the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) rose to 0.58% last month from 0.16% in October, while economists anticipated an increase to 0.75%. Primary articles inflation rose to 7.68% in November, up from 6.4% recorded in the previous last month. Manufactured goods inflation was unchanged at 0.84%. The WPI was driven by food inflation, which rose to 11% against 9.8% in October.

Last Friday, rating agency Moody’s cut its 2019 economic growth outlook for India to 5.6%, citing slow employment growth and stagnating consumption. The agency’s Investors Service unit anticipate growth acceleration in 2020 and 2021, to 6.6% and 6.7% respectively, though the pace of growth maintains below past forecasts.

The rupee is slipping against the British counterpart despite the US-China trade optimism. The world’s two biggest economies cooler their trade conflict on Friday, finally reaching consensus for a phase one deal to be signed next month. The US is giving up the additional tariffs that were set to take effect on December 15, while China pledged to buy US agriculture goods and other products and services.

Trump tweeted:

“We have agreed to a very large Phase One Deal with China. They have agreed to many structural changes and massive purchases of Agricultural Product, Energy, and Manufactured Goods, plus much more. The 25% Tariffs will remain as is, with 7 1/2% put on much of the remainder.”

Elsewhere, the pound is supported by investors’ sentiment that Johnson would speed up the Brexit process. The PM will likely put the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) back to the vote in UK Parliament before Christmas. Johnson wants to “get Brexit done” by January 31 and reach a trade deal with the EU by the end of 2020.

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