GBP/NOK: Sterling Loses Ground Against the Krone as New Poll Shows Johnson’s Lead is Melting Down

The British pound gave back most of its yesterday’s gains against the Norwegian krone this morning after a widely-anticipated poll showed that Johnson’s lead is narrowing.

Just one day before the election, a YouGov opinion poll suggested that the Conservatives will win 339 seats in the House of Commons, followed by Labour’s 231 seats, SNP’s 41 seats and the Liberal Democrats’ 15.

According to the survey, Boris Johnson’s results are slashed by half compared to YouGov’s previous poll two weeks ago, which showed a majority of 68 seats. Still, the results also signal that the Labours are a long way short of winning a majority, even though their results have been steadily improving.

Market bets that the Tories will win a clear majority and “get Brexit done” by January 31 have pushed the British pound to a multi-year high against other majors, making it the best-performing currency with a 6% gain since September. However, this makes the pound extremely vulnerable to any unexpected outcomes at the election on Thursday.

In addition, even if Johnson manages to win a majority, the clock is ticking for a trade arrangement between the UK and the European Union by the end of 2020. Any prolonged uncertainties — especially if the US and China fail to agree upon a phase-one deal — could stimulate the Bank of England to cut rates which would drag the pound lower.

There are no market reports of note from the UK and Norway today. Energy prices were slightly lower this morning, which could put some downward pressure on the krone in today’s trade.

From a technical standpoint, the November upturn in the GBP/NOK pair is slowly becoming overstretched with the RSI nearing overbought levels and forming a bearish divergence. Yesterday’s pinbar pattern suggests that buyers are rejecting higher prices at the moment, which could trigger a retest of the December 6 low of 11.97, especially if profit-taking activities accelerate ahead of the election. As of 7:00 a.m. London time, one pound bought 12.0540 Norwegian krones. is a news site only and not a currency trading platform. is a site operated by TransferWise Inc. (“We”, “Us”), a Delaware Corporation. We do not guarantee that the website will operate in an uninterrupted or error-free manner or is free of viruses or other harmful components. The content on our site is provided for general information only and is not intended as an exhaustive treatment of its subject. We expressly disclaim any contractual or fiduciary relationship with you on the basis of the content of our site, any you may not rely thereon for any purpose. You should consult with qualified professionals or specialists before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site. Although we make reasonable efforts to update the information on our site, we make no representations, warranties or guarantees, whether express or implied, that the content on our site is accurate, complete or up to date, and DISCLAIM ANY IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. Some of the content posted on this site has been commissioned by Us, but is the work of independent contractors. These contractors are not employees, workers, agents or partners of TransferWise and they do not hold themselves out as one. The information and content posted by these independent contractors have not been verified or approved by Us. The views expressed by these independent contractors on do not represent our views.