GBP/USD: Dollar Steady Amid US - China Trade Developments

The Euro US dollar exchange rate advanced 0.4% versus the dollar across the previous week. The euro was pushing higher versus a weaker US dollar as trading begins on Monday.

The euro was on the rise his morning after a welcomed surprise from German exports. October trade data is keeping hopes alive that the economy could avoid a contraction in the final quarter. Despite the ongoing trade dispute and slowing global demand, data is showing that German exports have held up well. The stronger than forecast trade figures come following a disappointing run of macro-economic data last week as German industrial production declined further, German factory orders fell from -5% to -5.5% in October and retail sales also missed the mark.

The main risk event of the week for euro investors will be Thursday’s European Central Bank monetary policy meeting. This will be the first one with Christine Lagarde at the helm. Analysts are not expecting any change to monetary policy. Instead focus will be on a strategic review.

Dollar Eases On Trade Tensions After Strong NFP

The US dollar had a late surge last week, rallying across the board on Friday, following the Labour Department’s jobs report. The US no farm payroll smashed expectation with 266,000 new jobs being created in November. This headline figure was significantly above the 180,000 that analysts forecast. It was also the strongest job creation number since January. Unemployment fell to 3.5%, returning to the 2019 low and the lowest level since 1969.

Hourly wages were also impressive, surprising to the upside by growing 3.1% year on year, ahead of the 3% forecast. Overall the jobs report was solid and served to calm concerns over the health of the US economy ahead of the Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement later this week.

The Federal Open Market Committee is not expected to adjust monetary policy when they meet this week. After three insurance interest rate cuts across the year, the Fed has said that the cycle is over. According to the CME Fedwatch tool, and following the strong US jobs data, dollar investors are pricing in just a 0.7% probability of rates being adjusted by the Fed this week.

Trade remains in focus at the start of the week. President Trump calling on the World Bank to stop lending to China could aggravate tensions between the two powers ahead of the 15th December trade tariff deadline.


What do these figures mean?
When measuring the value of a pair of currencies, one set equals 1 unit and the other shows the current equivalent. As the market moves, the amount will vary from minute to minute.

For example, it could be written:

1 EUR = 1.12829 USD

Here, €1 is equivalent to approximately $1.13. This specifically measures the euro’s worth against the dollar. If the U.S. dollar amount increases in this pairing, it’s positive for the euro.

Or, if you were looking at it the other way around:

1 USD = 0.88789 EUR

In this example, $1 is equivalent to approximately €0.89. This measures the U.S. dollar’s worth versus the euro. If the euro number gets larger, it’s good news for the dollar. is a news site only and not a currency trading platform. is a site operated by TransferWise Inc. (“We”, “Us”), a Delaware Corporation. We do not guarantee that the website will operate in an uninterrupted or error-free manner or is free of viruses or other harmful components. The content on our site is provided for general information only and is not intended as an exhaustive treatment of its subject. We expressly disclaim any contractual or fiduciary relationship with you on the basis of the content of our site, any you may not rely thereon for any purpose. You should consult with qualified professionals or specialists before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site. Although we make reasonable efforts to update the information on our site, we make no representations, warranties or guarantees, whether express or implied, that the content on our site is accurate, complete or up to date, and DISCLAIM ANY IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. Some of the content posted on this site has been commissioned by Us, but is the work of independent contractors. These contractors are not employees, workers, agents or partners of TransferWise and they do not hold themselves out as one. The information and content posted by these independent contractors have not been verified or approved by Us. The views expressed by these independent contractors on do not represent our views.