USD/PKR Steady as Trade Deal Uncertainty Continues, US NFP Eyed Next

USD/PKR previous four days: Rate – Average
12/5/2019 154.74
12/4/2019 155.15
12/3/2019 155.21
12/2/2019 155.28

USD/PKR was up 0.25% to 155.085 in late Asian session on Friday.

USD/PKR remained range bound around the 155 mark on Thursday, showing little reaction to US macro data. The number of Americans claiming unemployment assistance fell by 10 000 to 203 000 during the week ended December 1st. The numbers were well below expectations of 215 000.

A separate report by the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed US trade deficit had shrunk to USD 47.2 billion in October. This marked the lowest gap since May 2018. Market expectations had pointed to a smaller drop.

The lack of clarity regarding a “phase-one” US-China trade agreement persisted, as conflicting headlines continued to emerge. China’s commerce ministry was reported to have maintained its stance that tariffs have to be reduced if Beijing and Washington are to ink an interim trade agreement.

Investor expectations of a rate cut by Fed were slightly higher. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, as of December 5th, investors saw a 26.6% chance of a rate cut occurring at the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in March, up from 22.2% a day ago.

Meanwhile, Moody’s maintained the Pakistani government’s local and foreign currency long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings at B3 and also upgraded outlook from negative to stable. The agency cited a number of measures, including step devaluations of PKR exchange rate that culminated in the transition of the exchange rate regime to a market-based system in May.

An environment of attractive interest rates and improving balance of payments is likely to support PKR valuation.

The US Dollar Index was little changed at 97.355 in late Asian trade on Friday, not far from yesterday’s fresh one-month low (97.320).

Today’s market focus will be on the more comprehensive non-farm payrolls report, which reflects employment in the US public and private sectors. Employers in all segments of economy, excluding the farming industry, probably added 180 000 new jobs in November, according to market expectations, after a job gain of 128 000 in October. Slower-than-expected job growth in November would have a considerable bearish effect on USD, because of negative implications regarding labor market strength and consumer spending respectively.

Meanwhile, the rate of unemployment in the country probably remained stable at 3.6% in November, according to estimates. The official government report is due out at 13:30 GMT.

Additionally, the monthly survey by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan may show that consumer confidence in the US continued to improve in December.

The preliminary reading of the consumer sentiment index probably rose to 97.0 in December from a final 96.8 in November. In case the gauge met or even exceeded expectations, this would support USD demand due to positive implications regarding consumer expenditures. The report is expected at 15:00 GMT. is a news site only and not a currency trading platform. is a site operated by TransferWise Inc. (“We”, “Us”), a Delaware Corporation. We do not guarantee that the website will operate in an uninterrupted or error-free manner or is free of viruses or other harmful components. The content on our site is provided for general information only and is not intended as an exhaustive treatment of its subject. We expressly disclaim any contractual or fiduciary relationship with you on the basis of the content of our site, any you may not rely thereon for any purpose. You should consult with qualified professionals or specialists before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site. Although we make reasonable efforts to update the information on our site, we make no representations, warranties or guarantees, whether express or implied, that the content on our site is accurate, complete or up to date, and DISCLAIM ANY IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. Some of the content posted on this site has been commissioned by Us, but is the work of independent contractors. These contractors are not employees, workers, agents or partners of TransferWise and they do not hold themselves out as one. The information and content posted by these independent contractors have not been verified or approved by Us. The views expressed by these independent contractors on do not represent our views.