The Hungarian Forint rallied versus the weaker US dollar at the start of the trading week. The US Dollar Hungarian Forint exchange rate dropped over 1.2% across Monday, closing at 300.06 as investors digested manufacturing data from both countries. The pair is holding steady in early trade on Tuesday.
The US dollar traded lower across the board on Monday amid weak manufacturing data and elevating trade concerns. Data showed that the US manufacturing sector contracted again in November. The manufacturing pmi unexpectedly fell to 48.1, down from 48.3 in October and well below the 49.4 analysts expected. The level 50 separates expansion from contraction. November was the 4th consecutive month that the US manufacturing sector contracted. The data raised concerns over the health of the US economy, weighing on demand for the dollar.
Trade headlines also dented the mood towards the dollar. Following Trump signing the Hong Kong bill into law, supporting the anti-government Hong Kong protesters, China retaliated by refusing to allow US military into Hong Kong. The bottom line is tensions are on the rise between the two powers meaning a phase one trade deal could be harder to achieve.
President Trump also announced trade tariffs on base metals from Argentina and Brazil. Furthermore, the Trump administration threatened tariffs on the EU over the illegal Airbus subsidy. The prospect of trade wars on so many fronts unnerved US dollar investors.
Today there is little n the US economy calendar. Trade headlines will continue to drive the greenback.
Hungarian Forint Rises After Strong Manufacturing PMI
The Hungarian Forint pushed higher in the previous session thanks to stronger than forecast manufacturing data. Hungary’s manufacturing purchasing managers index rose 53 points in November, up from 51.9 in October and above the 52.3 level that analysts had forecast. This was the 47th straight month that the sector produced a figure over 50, which separates expansion from contraction. Investors cheered the data which showed the sector to be performing well despite a weakness in manufacturing sectors across the globe.
Analysts expect gains in the Forint to be shot lived given continued expectations of loose monetary policy despite rising inflation. This combination of overshooting inflation and the central bank’s unconditional dovish stance is unnerving the fx markets.
There is no high impacting Hungarian data due today. Investors will look ahead to Thursday’s retail sales figures.