The Indian Rupee has managed to publish another day of full gains against the US dollar.

Since the middle of the last week, Rupee had an impressive run posting gains for the six consecutive trading days. The Indian Rupee closed at 70.535 against the greenback at the end of the Wednesday trading session. At 9:00 AM BST, the Indian Rupee was trading at 70.680 erasing all of the previous trading gains. Most Asian currencies are posting losses against the greenback.

The US Dollar index, which tracks the relative value of the greenback relative to a basket of other major currencies, is trading slightly up relative to the previous trading day closing price of 97.52.

NIFTY 50 settled at 11604 registering a modest gain of 8 points on Wednesday. However, the domestic equity market surged during the Asia trading hours gapping higher, but it is currently trading down again at around 11581. The strength seen in the domestic equity market index can promote more risk taken from investors abroad, which in turn can fuel the USD/INR exchange rate to make a decisive break below the key psychological figure 70.000.

Unless we get more clarity on the macro themes such as US — China trade deal or Brexit, big investors will refrain from taking on more risk on emerging market economies such as the Indian economy. The Indian equity market has also become less attractive for foreign investors due to the slowdown in economic activity.

The Reserve Bank of India is also on track to become the most dovish central bank in Asia. The RBI has cut the interest rate which, currently stands at 5.15%, for the fifth consecutive time this year. This explains in part why the Indian Rupee is reluctant to strengthen beyond its current trading range.

USD/INR Technical Pattern

The USD/INR exchange rate remains range-bound between the key support level 70.350 and key resistance level and round number 72.000. While if in the medium-term there is no clear direction, the long-term trend outlook remains bearish for the Indian Rupee.


 

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