GBP/INR Continues to Decline as Polls Slash Jonshon’s Lead

GBP/INR is declining in early trading on Wednesday. The pound is under pressure after YouGov released its poll. The poll is showing that Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party would secure only a modest win in the election due tomorrow.

Currently, one British pound buys 93.022 Indian rupees, down 0.12% as of 6:48 AM UTC. Thus, the pair continues its bearish trend that formed December 5, when the price peaked at 94.016.

Yesterday, YouGov said that the Tories are on their way to win a majority tomorrow. Thought, the margin of victory was slashed by over 50% compared to the previous poll results published two weeks ago. Thus, Johnson’s party is set to secure 339 seats, with the opposition Labour Party on 231, the Liberal Democrats on 15, and the Scottish National Party on 41. This would be a much narrower win compared to previous predictions that suggested the Tories’ lead against Labours was as much as 68 seats.

The only hope for the Conservative Party is that YouGov admits a level of variation. This suggests the ruling party could win as many as 367 seats or as few as 311.

YouGov’s political research manager Chris Curtis commented:

“The margins are extremely tight and small swings in a small number of seats, perhaps from tactical voting and a continuation of Labour’s recent upward trend, means we can’t currently rule out a hung parliament.”

The YouGov poll is quite relevant given that it was the only one that could predict the results of the UK’s previous election in 2017. It uses a sophisticated polling model called multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP). This takes into account voters’ age, gender, demographics, past voting behavior, and other variables. YouGov surveyed over 100,000 British citizens over a seven-day period.

Despite doing well in pair with the sterling, the rupee is still under pressure amid India’s economic slowdown. Yesterday, the Indian government presented a roadmap to get the country in the top 50 nations in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business rankings. The government is working on a strategy that focuses on Bangalore and Kolkata.

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