- Indian Rupee (INR) declines as service industry remains deep in contraction
- Outlook for sector remains weak, with consumer confidence low
- US Dollar (USD) broadly lower on rising risk sentiment & ahead of ADP payroll data
- At 11:15 UTC, USD/INR is trading +0.5% at 75.44
The Indian Rupee is snapping a four-day winning streak versus the US Dollar, heading southward on Wednesday. The Indian Rupee has rallied over 1% since Thursday on an improving mood in the broader financial market.
At 11:15 UTC, USD/INR is trading +0.5% at 75.44 as the Rupee gives back earlier gains following dismal service sector data.
Data revealed that India’s enormous service industry endured another month of deep contraction in May, as the coronavirus lockdown brought business activity to a virtual standstill. The Nikkei/IHS Markit service sector PMI clawed up to 12.6 in May, up from the all time low of 5.4 in April, but still a very long way from the level 50 which separates expansion from contraction.
The lockdown, which started on 25th March and has been extended in some parts of the country has seen domestic demand evaporate. Meanwhile lockdown measures across the globe have meant that foreign demand also stalled.
The sharp drop in demand has led firms to reduce their workforce and lay off staff at the fastest pace since the survey began fifteen years ago. The outlook also remains very weak with no fast turnaround expected. Consumer confidence is expected to stay low across the coming 12 months, hampering India’s recovery.
The US Dollar is trading broadly lower versus its major peers, amid a strong risk on sentiment in financial markets as investors cheer the continued reopening of economies whilst shrugging off rising civil unrest in the US. US stock markets closed at a 3 month high on Tuesday.
Protests and riots are continuing on the streets of America following the death of black George Floyd whilst being arrested by white policemen in Minneapolis. So far, investors have looked through escalating violence. President Trump had threatened to bring in the military to control the riots. So far, he hasn’t followed through with his threat.
Attention will now turn towards US ADP private payroll data. Analysts are expecting payrolls to drop by -9 million in May. Whilst this is an eye watering fall, it is significantly better than the -25 million decline seen in April.