- Pound (GBP) is falling, extending losses from last week
- UK manufacturing PMI contracts in May
- Euro (EUR) rises as US-China trade tensions
- Manufacturing PMI rises to a 3-year high
The Pound-Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is falling, extending losses from last week. The pair fell by 0.42% in the previous week, settling on Friday at €1.1862. It traded between €1.1850 and €1.1973. At 13:30, GBP/EUR trades -0.07% at €1.1856.
The pound is modestly lower as the downturn in UK manufacturing, last seen in the United States and initially feared in May, continues, although output orders and jobs continue to fall.
The final reading of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 46.4 in May compared to 45.4 in April. This was the highest since February but remained below the 50 threshold for growth. Companies cited recent tax hikes and U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs as reasons for the ongoing weakness.
There is no further high-impact UK economic data due to be released today, attention will turn to tomorrow’s Bank of England monetary policy hearing before the Treasury Select Committee, which could provide more clarity over the Bank of England’s outlook for interest rates.
The euro is rising despite the fact that the European Central Bank will likely be cutting interest rates again this week. The euro is benefiting from U.S. dollar weakness and ongoing trade worries, as the US-China trade war appears to be ramping up.
Still, gains could be limited given that this week’s eurozone inflation data is expected to show inflation easing back towards the ECB’s target of 2%. This will reinforce expectations that the ECB will reduce rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the EU is warning of retaliation following Trump’s announcement of 50% tariffs on steel and aluminium up from 25% previously.
Meanwhile, data today showed that eurozone manufacturing activity was 49.4 in May, up from 49 in April, marking its highest level in three years and the fifth straight month of improvement. However, the PMI remains below the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction.