- Pound (GBP) is falling after 5 days of gains
- UK consumers spent 7.2% more on Black Friday compared to 2023
- Euro (EUR) is rising, but the government is on the brink of collapse
- PM Barnier faces a vote of no-confidence tomorrow
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is falling after five days of gains. The pair rose 0.12% in the previous session, settling on Monday at €1.2055 and trading in a range between €1.2026 and €1.2090. At 12:00 UTC, GBP/EUR trades -0.17% at €1.2035.
The euro is recovering slightly after steep losses against its major peers in recent sessions; however, the ongoing turmoil in French politics could limit the common currency’s upside.
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier faces a vote of no confidence tomorrow after strong opposition from his coalition parties to his budget, which contained painful tax increases and spending cuts to repair the country’s public finances.
With political instability set to continue for the time being, the outlook for the euro remains weak. Furthermore, the uncertain political outlook comes at a time when the economy continues to show signs of a slowdown. Yesterday, eurozone manufacturing contracted again in November, with the recession in the sector showing no signs of recovery.
Today the eurozone economic calendar is quiet. However, things will pick up tomorrow with wholesale inflation data, business activity figures, and a speech by ECB president Christine Lagarde.
The pound is heading lower after figures from the British Retail Consortium show that retailers had the weakest November sales since April.
Sales volumes fell by three-point 3% in the year to November, below an increase of 0.6% in October. However, this decline most likely reflects the fact that Black Friday sales will be in December’s numbers this year compared to November’s figures last year.
According to Adobe, British shoppers spent £3.63 billion online over the Black Friday—Cyber Monday weekend, a 5.2% increase from the same period last year.
Separate data from Barclays showed that online physical trading increased by 9.5% across Black Friday compared to 2023.