- Pound (GBP) fell on Friday but rose across the week
- UK GDP stalled at 0%
- Euro (EUR) rose on Friday but is still lower across the week
- Concerns over the energy crisis weigh on the EUR
The Pound-Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate fell for a second day on Friday. The pair fell 0.03% on Thursday, settling at €1.1591. It traded between €1.1576 and €1.16017. At 21:30 UTC on Friday, GBP/EUR trades -0.05% lower at €1.1585. The price rose 0.36% across the week.
The pound fell on Friday after data showed that the UK economy unexpectedly stagnated in January following weak growth in the previous month. The figures indicate a loss of momentum in the UK economy even before the war in Iran began, which is likely to weigh further on growth.
Data from the Office for National Statistics showed that UK GDP was flat at 0% month-on-month in January, below expectations for a 0.2% increase and below December’s 0.1% growth.
Looking more closely at the figures, there was no growth in the dominant services sector at the start of the year, which contrasts with the more upbeat PMI business surveys released recently.
The data also comes before the impact of soaring energy prices is felt on the economy. Rising oil and energy prices are expected to create stagflationary pressures.
Typically, disappointing GDP data could encourage the Bank of England to cut interest rates. However, markets are now pricing in an 86% probability that the BoE will hike rates by the end of the year, owing to rising inflation risks.
While the euro rose modestly at the end of the week, this was insufficient to offset earlier losses, and the currency has fallen sharply since the start of the Iranian conflict.
The eurozone is particularly vulnerable to rising energy prices due to its reliance on imported energy, raising concerns about a potential stagflationary impact on the economy.
Money markets are pricing in only a 5% probability of an ECB rate cut at next week’s meeting, and with global energy prices rising, the central bank could even be forced to consider a rate hike by the end of the year.