- Pound (GBP) is falling, extending losses from last week
- BoE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks later
- Euro (EUR) falls, extending last week’s losses
- French PM Sebastian Lecornu resigned after 27 days
The Pound-Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is rising, adding to last week’s gains. The pair gained 0.21% in the previous week, settling on Friday at €1.1479. It traded between €1.1431 and €1.1515. At 11:00 UTC, GBP/EUR trades 0.33% at €1.1517.
The euro is falling after French Prime Minister Sebastian Lecornu resigned after just 27 days in office.
His resignation highlights the increasing instability of French politics, with another election looking likely; however, this may not resolve the crisis, as the incoming PM will face the same challenges of a fragmented parliament with no obvious solution.
Successive prime ministers have faced challenges in passing an unpopular budget through a fractured parliament, aiming to cut spending, increase taxes, and reduce the budget deficit.
Following the announcement, French bonds fell with the 10-year yield jumping as much as 11 basis points to 3.61%. The euro is under pressure, and the French CAC has tumbled 2% with the banking sector taking the largest hit.
Amid the unfolding drama in France, the market has looked past eurozone retail sales, which rose 0.1% month-over-month in August, in line with expectations, while the July reading was upwardly revised to -0.4%.
The pound is gaining against the weak euro, but gains could be limited given concerns over the UK fiscal outlook heading towards the Chancellor’s budget at the end of November.
The UK economic calendar is quiet today; however, attention will shift to Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech later today. The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged in the September meeting and is not expected to cut rates again this year, given sticky inflation and uncertainties surrounding the upcoming budget.
Data from last week indicated a deteriorating economic outlook. The services PMI showed that activity in the UK’s dominant sector fell to a five-month low in September as momentum and confidence faded ahead of the Budget.