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USD/INR: Rupee falls despite the GDP outlook improving

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The US Dollar to Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is rising after losses last week. The pair fell -0.06% in the previous week, settling on Friday at 86.57. At 17:00 UTC USD/INR trades 0.07% higher at 86.63 and is in a range of 86.44 to 86.75.

The Indian Rupee fell despite an improving economic outlook.

India’s economy is expected to rebound in the previous quarter, expanding by 6.3% amid increased government spending, which offset weak household demand.

A national election in the April to June quarter last year forced the government to curb infrastructure spending, a key driver of economic growth. As a result, growth slid 5.4% in July to September, well below the 8.2% average in the previous fiscal year.

Since then, government expenditures likely rose by double digits in the last three months of 2024, offsetting the withdrawal of billions of dollars by foreign investors from the equity markets.

The US Dollar is rising against the Rupee but falling across the board. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, is falling -0.04% on Monday, falling to 106.56, extending losses from last week.

The US dollar filed a cross last week after a series of weak data raised concerns over the outlook for the US economy. Michigan’s confidence dropped to a 15-month low, and the services PMI decreased to 49.7 in February, down from 52.9, putting it in contraction territory.

The data showed that businesses and households alike are losing confidence amid concerns over the Trump administration’s policies.

Trump will speak later today; otherwise, the US economic calendar is quiet. Friday’s core PCE will be a key focus.

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