- Pound (GBP) rose on Friday & across the week
- UK retail sales jump 1.7% MoM in January
- Euro (EUR) fell last week
- Eurozone PMI held steady at 50.2
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rose on Friday, recovering losses from the previous session. The pair fell -0.12% in the previous session, settling on Thursday at €1.2059 and traded in a range between €1.2056 and €1.2102. GBP/EUR rose 0.74% across the week and settled on Friday at €1.2075.
The pound pushed higher on Friday after stronger-than-expected retail sales at the start of the year. The data from the Office of National Statistics showed that retail sales rose by 1.7% month on month in January, erasing a revised 0.6% loss recorded in December. This marks the strongest monthly increase since May last year and was well ahead of the 0.5% gain that economists had expected.
Delving deeper into the figures, the data showed that food sales rose by the most since the start of the pandemic in March 2020 despite decreases in other categories, including clothing and footwear.
A healthy headline figure is encouraging; however, sector by sector, and analysis suggests that consumers remained cautious as they braced for more shocks.
The euro fell on Friday after PMI data indicated that the economic activity was stabilizing; however, declining new orders and hiring revealed a weak near-term outlook. The composite PMI for February, which is considered a good gauge of business activity, was 50.2, unchanged from the previous month. Manufacturing has shown some signs of bottoming out, with the PMI increasing to 48.7 in February, up from 47.1, but there still indicates a contraction move better to a slower pace.
The service sector is still showing growth despite weakening new business. Consumer confidence also increased in February but remained solidly below the long-term average.
The data comes as the European Central Bank remains convinced that inflation is under control even though cost pressures continue to creep up for businesses. February PMI data once again flagged rising input costs that are being passed on to the consumer to some extent.
That said, given the weak demand environment, it’s difficult to see a persistent flare-up in inflation. Chinese EB is expected to continue cutting rates for the time being.