- Pound (GBP) rises, adding to last week’s gains
- UK unemployment, retail sales & GDP data are due this week
- Euro (EUR) is falling on Trump trade tariff fears
- The ECB may have to cut rates more aggressively.
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is rising, adding to gains in the previous week. The pair rose 1% in the previous week, settling on Friday at €1.2054 and trading in a range between €1893 and €1.2059. At 11:00 UTC, GBP/EUR trades +0.26% at €1.2085.
The pound is rising against the euro but falling against the stronger U.S. dollar ahead of a busy week for UK economic data.
Tomorrow, UK jobs data will be released, followed by GDP figures and retail sales later in the week. These figures will shed some light on the health of the UK economy and come after the Bank of England cut interest rates last week.
The Bank of England cut rates by 25 basis points; however, the central bank was cautious about further rate cuts following the Labour Party’s inflationary budget. The market is now pricing in just a 15% probability of the central bank cutting rates again in December, with a move in February looking more likely.
The euro is falling again at the start of this week, extending gains from last week amid concerns that Europe is in the firing line for Trump’s trade tariffs. Trade tariffs could hit the eurozone’s already fragile economic recovery, potentially forcing the ECB to cut interest rates at a faster pace to support the economy.
Meanwhile, the eurozone currency is also under pressure amid political uncertainty in Germany. Following the collapse of Germany’s governing coalition, chancellor Olaf Scholz has said that a vote of confidence could be held before the end of the year if everybody agrees. The vote which the chancellor is widely expected to lose would pave the way for snap elections.
Looking ahead, the eurozone economic calendar is quiet today; however, German inflation data and zed EW economic sentiment figures will be in focus tomorrow.