- Indian Rupee (INR) is falling, tracking equities lower
- Oil prices rose 4%, adding to gains of 9% yesterday
- US Dollar (USD) falls versus its major peers
- Investors rein in aggressive Fed rate cut expectations
The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is rising, adding to gains from the previous week. The pair rose 0.37% in the last week, settling on Friday at 84.02. Today, at 21:00 UTC USD/INR trades up 0.12% at 84.12 and traded in a range of 83.95 to 84.12.
The Rupee is falling, tracking domestic equities lower while the oil process surges. Indian equities closed low on Monday, with the Nifty 50 closing 0.87% lower, dropping to a one-month low, while the Sensex fell -0.78%.
Oil prices gained almost 4% on Monday amid concerns surrounding the conflict in the Middle East. The oil price built on gains of 9% last week, the largest weekly rise since March 2023. Rising oil prices are bad news for India, which imports 80% of its oil requirements.
The US Dollar is rising against the Ruppee but falling against its major peers. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades -0.02% at 102.26, adding to last week’s gains.
The US dollar is falling lower at the start of a new week but remains close to its six-week high versus its major peers.
Safe-haven flows have lifted the U.S. dollar amid concern surrounding escalating tensions in the Middle East. The market is concerned over the broadening out of the conflict in the region which is hurting risk sentiment. US equities are also falling lower at the start of the week.
The US dollar has also been boosted by the market reining in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations after solid data and last week.
Investors no longer expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November but consider a 25-basis-point cut almost a certainty.
This is after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell signaled to the market that a 25 basis point cut was more likely and after US nonfarm payroll figures smashed expectations with 254,000 jobs added in September.
Looking ahead, investors will watch out for US inflation data on Thursday, which is expected to show that consumer prices cooled further to 2.3% year on year, down from 2.5%
The minutes of the US FOMC meeting will also be in focus.