- Pound (GBP) is rising after recent losses
- BRC retail sales rose 0.4% MoM
- Euro (EUR) falls as German unemployment rises
- ECB still on track to cut rates
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is rising after three days of losses. The pair fell +0.05% in the previous session, settling on Tuesday at €1.1740 and trading in a range between €1.1713 and €1.1754. At 16:00 UTC, GBP/EUR trades 0.05% at €1.1750.
The pound is pushing higher as investors digest the latest retail sales from the British Retail Consortium. BRC retail sales rose 0.4% year on year in May, recovering from a -4.4 % decline in April. However, the recovery is clearly weak, missing expectations of 1.2% growth.
Meanwhile, consumer credit card spending fell to a three-year low in May as consumers cut back on discretionary spending, especially non-essential food and drink, as household budgets remained squeezed.
Consumer credit card spending grew by just 1% year on year, significantly less than the latest inflation rate of over 3% and the lowest level since February 2021.
The data highlights the pressures that households are under, with interest rates remaining at a 16-year high.
The Bank of England will meet later this month and is expected to leave interest rates on hold. However, policymakers could provide further clues about when the central bank will start to cut rates.
The euro is falling after the German unemployment unexpectedly rose in May. Data showed that whilst the unemployment rate remained at 5.9% the joblessness level increased by 25,000. This was ahead of the 7000 increase that economists had expected.
The data comes after figures last week showed that eurozone unemployment fell to a r record low.
Looking ahead, attention will start turning towards the ECB interest rate decision on Thursday. The central bank is expected to Cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%, down from 4%.
However, given recent strength in eurozone data, there are questions over whether the central bank will be able to continue cutting rates aggressively throughout the year. The market now is pricing in just two interest rate cuts from the ECB, down from three previously.