Despite a stronger start on Tuesday, the Hungarian forint failed to hold onto its gains and instead slipped lower versus a broadly weaker US dollar. The US dollar Hungarian forint exchange rate rallied for a fifth straight session to close 0.1% higher at 310.23, a record low close for the forint.
The forint is once again slipping lower in early trade on Wednesday, striking a fresh record low of 310.71
Hungarian Forint
Central and Eastern European currencies broadly performed well in the previous session as risk appetite improved. A slowdown in the number of new cases of coronavirus offered some relief to the markets, although caution remained meaning gains in Central and Eastern European currencies were capped.
The Hungarian forint did not join its peers, instead dropping to a fresh record low. The forint has declined around 2% year to date thanks in part to the very dovish stance adopted by the Hungarian central bank. Not even a move by the State Bank of Hungary earlier this week to tighten liquidity in the system helped boost the forint. The impact that the tightening is having on interest rates is far less than the pace of acceleration in inflation. The forint was not impressed by the central bank’s efforts.
Investors will now look ahead to tomorrow’s data. After a quiet start to the week data wise, construction output and inflation readings are due tomorrow, followed by GDP data on Friday. Inflation is expected to be closely watched after jumping to 4% in December. Analysts are forecasting a further rise in inflation to 4.3% year on year in January. Core inflation is expected to rise at a slower rate of 4% year on year, up from 3.9%. A strong inflation reading could boost the Forint.
US Dollar
Demand for the safe haven dollar eased in the previous session. As risk sentiment improved on the slowing of the spread of coronavirus, the dollar also fell versus most of its peers.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s appearance before Congress was well balanced. He highlighted the strength of the US jobs market and spoke of the resilience of the US economy as it faced global headwinds. Jerome Powell said that the Fed would be monitoring coronavirus and its impact on the Chinese and global economy closely.
Today Jerome Powell will testify before the Senate. Investors will be watching to see whether he remains as even toned.