USD/INR: RBI Halting Rate Cuts Continues to Boost Rupee

Indian Rupee continues to strengthen against the greenback after RBI halted rate cuts and at the same time discounts the trade war threats. The value of Rupee has jumped to a 4-week high against the US dollar during the previous week of trading activity.

On the currency market, the Rupee appreciated by 47 paise settling at 71.16 against the US dollar at the end of Friday’s trading session.

During the early Asia trading hours and after the London open, the USD/INR exchange rate was seen quoted within a range of 71.19 — 70.99. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of major currencies, traded lower for the most part of last week’s trading activity, but experienced a relief rally due to record US job and settled at 97.68.

India’s central bank (RBI)  kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.15% and trimmed down its GDP forecast for fiscal year 2019-2020 to 5.0% from 6.1%%. The accommodative stance was reason enough for currency traders to get behind the Rupee. However, in the short-term Rupee strength can be limited both in price and time due to the long-term effect of the trade war threats.

In the short-term, we have seen an improvement between the world’s two largest economies as China decided to waive tariff hikes on some US imports. China’s Customs Tariff Commission announced it will cut the US pork and soybean import tariffs. Wall Street analysts are speculating that this move ahead of the US tariff hikes scheduled to go into effect on 15 December.

The domestic benchmark equity index NIFTY 50 closed on a negative tone during last week’s trading activity and settled at 11921 registering a -1.78 loss. Year-to-date the Indian stock market has gained 9.5%, benefiting from foreign investment inflow.

During early Asia trading hours, NIFTY 50 was seen quoted higher at 11981. The Indian 10-year government bond yield was seen quoted at 6.66 versus 6.67 previous closing prices.

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